News Capsule: El Niño Threat Raises Concerns for Kharif Crops, Farm Incomes and Food Inflation
09-Jun-2026 11:07 AM
News Capsule: El Niño Threat Raises Concerns for Kharif Crops, Farm Incomes and Food Inflation
★ The developing El Niño in the central Pacific Ocean is emerging as a major risk for India's 2026 kharif season. Weather agencies and economists fear that a weak monsoon could adversely affect crop production, farm incomes, and rural demand.
★ The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected below-normal monsoon rainfall for 2026. Rain-fed crops are expected to be the most vulnerable to any rainfall deficiency.
★ Pulses, millets, oilseeds, maize, and cotton are considered the most at-risk crops, as a large share of their cultivation depends on monsoon rainfall.
★ The government has advised states to focus on expanding the acreage of pulses and oilseeds during the kharif season and promote short-duration crop varieties to mitigate weather-related risks.
★ Data from previous El Niño years show that paddy and maize yields in several districts declined by more than 10%, highlighting the potential impact of deficient rainfall on agricultural output.
★ A weak monsoon could also fuel food inflation, particularly in pulses, oilseeds, and other rain-dependent crops. Lower agricultural output may put pressure on farm incomes and weaken rural consumption demand.
★ If rainfall remains below normal during the crucial July-August period, prices of pulses, oilseeds, maize, and coarse grains could strengthen. However, supply risks for major staples such as wheat and rice are expected to remain limited due to the government's ample stockpiles of these commodities.