Global market price of wheat may remain high next year

04-Nov-2024 06:18 PM

Chicago. Winter wheat sowing is likely to be affected due to dry weather in Russia-Ukraine and heavy rains in many member countries of the European Union causing severe floods. Weather conditions are also said to be unfavourable in some states of America and Argentina.

Harvesting of the new crop of wheat is going to start soon in Argentina. Although the weather conditions are not favourable in Australia too, it is not expected to have any significant impact on the wheat crop there and its harvesting has started. Wheat harvesting will start in full swing in both Australia and Argentina in December.

Russia is the world's largest exporter of wheat and the third largest producer after China and India. Its major producing areas have not received good rainfall for a long time, so farmers cultivating winter wheat are quite worried and troubled.

Although a leading analyst firm has estimated the total wheat production area in Russia to remain almost the same as last year, under which the area of ​​winter crop is expected to decrease and the area of ​​spring crop is expected to increase, but its total production is estimated to decrease from 815 lakh tonnes to 801 lakh tonnes.

According to analysts, the previous outstanding stock will remain limited in the marketing season of 2025-26, due to which wheat exports may come down to below 400 lakh tonnes.

In the current marketing season of 2024-25, about 455-460 lakh tonnes of wheat is expected to be exported from Russia. The wheat marketing season in Russia starts in July and continues till June.

In Russia's neighboring country - Ukraine, wheat production is also expected to decline from 218 lakh tonnes in the 2024-25 season to 211 lakh tonnes in the 2025-26 season, which is much less than the five-year average production of 242 lakh tonnes. This will also reduce exports.