Government production estimates for Kharif crops need to be cautious

29-Oct-2025 05:22 PM

New Delhi. Although the Union Agriculture Ministry is optimistic about improved Kharif crop production based on the increase in sown area of ​​various crops and heavy rainfall during the southwest monsoon, the reality is that excessive rainfall and severe flooding have cast doubt on the production growth of many crops.

Farmers' expectations are likely to be dashed by natural disasters. Following heavy rains in August-September and severe flooding in October, various crops were damaged, dimming the prospects for robust production.

As a result, the agricultural sector's growth rate for the October-December 2025 quarter is estimated to be only 3.00-3.50 percent, down from a high of 6.6 percent in the same period last year.

The quality of agricultural crops has deteriorated due to excessive rainfall, forcing farmers to sell their produce at prices well below the Minimum Support Price (MSP). This particularly includes pulses, oilseeds, and cotton crops, whose market prices are trading below the MSP.

A price difference payment scheme has been launched for soybean in Madhya Pradesh, which is expected to provide relief to farmers. However, in Maharashtra, the situation has worsened as soybean procurement from farmers at the MSP has not yet begun.

As for Rabi crops, weather and rainfall conditions are largely favorable for sowing mustard, gram, lentils, and wheat. Sowing has already begun. If the weather remains favorable in the future, the area under mustard and gram may increase.

The Ministry of Agriculture will soon release an advance production estimate, but one should not be hasty in relying solely on it and formulating a business strategy based on it. Production estimates are subject to further changes.