I-Grain India – Mustard Market Analysis
As of October 13, 2026 | Based on Marudhar Trading Agency’s Report (All in Lakh tons)
★ Mustard Prices Show Bullish Signals, May Touch ₹10,000/Quintal
★ Production, Consumption & Estimated Stocks- Total availability (production + old stocks): 111.25, Arrivals: 85, Estimated crushing: 78, Remaining stocks: 33.25
Crushing was strong during the initial months but slowed later. However, it increased by around 1 lakh tonnes in September, indicating improving mustard oil demand.
Rising Demand for Mustard Oil
★ Since COVID-19, mustard oil has established a strong position in the domestic market. Demand is also growing at a healthy pace in South India. Higher demand is supporting crushing activity and may put further pressure on available stocks.
Jaipur Prices Strengthen
★ Jaipur mustard (42% condition) is trading at around ₹8,950 per quintal, up ₹250 in a week and ₹450 compared with November.
Stock Availability Until the New Crop
★ Around 33.25 lakh tonnes of mustard stocks are estimated to remain available until the new crop arrives in February 2027. Spread over the next five months, this amounts to an average of 6.65 lakh tonnes per month. Continued strong consumption and crushing could tighten availability.
Higher MSP May Encourage Sowing
★ The mustard MSP has been increased by ₹413 to ₹6,813 per quintal. Lower rainfall, the potential El Niño impact and mustard’s lower water requirement may encourage farmers in some regions to shift acreage from wheat to mustard. Current prices could further support this trend, although actual sowing will depend on weather and farmers’ decisions.
Government Procurement Outlook
★ If market prices remain above MSP during the new crop arrivals, government agencies may procure smaller quantities, potentially reducing the need for market intervention.
★ Potential Price Targets- Short term: ₹9,500 per quintal, Long term: ₹10,000 per quintal
Market Outlook
★ Rising mustard oil demand, improved crushing, limited stocks until the next crop and higher MSP are positive market indicators. If demand remains strong, mustard prices may continue to rise.
Disclaimer: These are personal market views, not investment or trading advice. Please study market fundamentals independently before making any trading decision.
