Impact of US-China Trade War on Soybean Markets in 2025

24-Dec-2024 02:29 PM

Impact of US-China Trade War on Soybean Markets in 2025
The US-China trade war is expected to influence global soybean markets in 2025, with a 634 lakh tons decline in US exports and record exports from Brazil.
Impact on US Exports:
- US soybean stocks are projected to reach 1,214 lakh tons in the 2025-26 marketing year.
- Exports of new crop soybeans may drop by 634  lakh tons, while old crop exports could see a smaller decline of 63  lakh tons.

Brazil's Production and Exports:
- Brazil's production is expected to reach 169 million metric tons in the 2024-25 season.
- Brazil's exports in 2025 are forecast to hit 110 million metric tons, with China remaining a major buyer.

Argentina's Production:
- Argentina's production is expected to remain steady at 49.5 million metric tons.
- The trade war could lead to increased soybean exports to China.

Overall, the US-China trade war may create opportunities for Brazil and Argentina, but rising supply could keep global prices under pressure.