India Soybean Outlook: Production, Demand, and Stock Balance – What Lies Ahead for the Market?
05-Aug-2025 12:16 PM
India Soybean Outlook: Production, Demand, and Stock Balance – What Lies Ahead for the Market?
★ According to the latest estimates by IGrain India, India’s soybean production for the 2025–26 season is expected to decline to 100 lakh tons, down from 115 lakh tons in 2024–25 and 110 lakh tons in 2023–24. As a result, total supply may fall to 122.9 lakh tons in 2025–26, compared to 129.8 lakh tons the previous year.
★ Imports have also dropped sharply. While India imported 6.25 lakh tons of soybean in 2023–24, imports are projected to be only 0.25 lakh tons in 2024–25 and 0.2 lakh tons in 2025–26.
★ For 2025–26, 17 lakh tons are expected to be retained for seed and direct use, while 88 lakh tons are estimated to be used for crushing. This leaves an estimated ending stock of 17.8 lakh tons — lower than 22.7 lakh tons in 2024–25, but higher than 14.55 lakh tons in 2023–24.
★ These figures suggest that a drop in production could tighten overall availability in the domestic market, potentially putting upward pressure on prices.
★ However, the domestic market is currently facing pressure from large imports of edible oils and the growing consumption of DDGS, which has reduced demand for soybean crushing.
★ Additionally, ongoing government sales have maintained availability in the market, but have further weakened crushing demand.
★ Analysts believe that unless crushing demand revives, prices will remain under pressure. That said, the upcoming festive season over the next two months may offer temporary support to soybean prices due to an expected rise in consumer demand.
★ A likely decline in production combined with festive demand may support prices in the near term, but long-term price stability depends on a revival in crushing demand.