Large cardamom may rise due to limited stock and weak production in Nepal
05-Nov-2024 03:47 PM
Rajbiraj. Large (black) cardamom crop is being affected due to unfavourable weather conditions in India's northern neighbouring country Nepal, due to which a huge drop in its production is feared. According to trade analysts, the previous outstanding stock in Nepal has reduced considerably.
The arrival of new goods starts there in December-January. At the beginning of the last season, there was a previous outstanding stock of about 35 thousand bags of cardamom and with the production of 40 thousand bags, the total availability reached 75 thousand bags.
Due to strong demand from other countries including India, large amount of large cardamom is being exported from Nepal, due to which the outstanding stock there may reduce to 15-20 thousand bags by the time the next supply season begins.
Even if the next production is estimated to be 35-40 thousand bags, the total availability will reach only 55-60 thousand bags. In such a situation, if the export demand remains strong, there can be a good rise in prices there.
Another important thing is that the remaining stock of big cardamom in Nepal is in the hands of stockists and speculators while the producers have already sold most of their goods.
These stockists/speculators are also eyeing the next crop, who can buy goods at cheap prices in the season to build stock and try to earn huge profits by selling it at higher prices in the off or lean season. Due to this, the import of big cardamom from there to India can be expensive.
In India itself, the crop of big cardamom is said to be weak and its limited stock is available in Gangtok and Siliguri as well as Bhutan.
As a result, the time of strong seasonal supply may be short and then its price may rise. But the rise in prices will depend on its domestic and export demand.
The first phase of plucking and preparation of new goods of big cardamom has ended and now the second phase has started which is considered the main phase. The quality of the goods remains good in this phase.