★ Canada’s lentil situation is broadly similar to the pea market, with the key difference being that the main trade challenge here is centered on India. Overall, lentil fundamentals have loosened significantly this year. Canadian lentil production in 2025 is estimated at 3.36 million tonnes, up 38% from last year. Total supply has risen to nearly 4.0 million tonnes, an increase of about 1.3 million tonnes.

★ At the global level, lentil production is expected to increase by around 23% (1.5–1.6 million tonnes), led by higher output in Canada, Australia, and the Black Sea region (Russia and Kazakhstan).

★ On the demand side, Canadian lentil export data is not particularly weak. According to the Canadian Grain Commission, bulk exports stood at 605,000 tonnes as of week 20, about 1% higher than last year. StatCan data, including container shipments, shows August–September exports up 29% year on year to 301,000 tonnes.

★ Exports to India and the UAE have increased significantly, while shipments to Pakistan are also higher. For the full season, Canadian lentil exports are estimated at 2.1 million tonnes, 13.5% higher than last year. Despite this, due to the large production increase, Canadian ending stocks are projected at around 1.5 million tonnes, pushing the stock-to-use ratio to about 62%. Elevated stocks are likely to discourage buyers and exporters from committing to forward contracts at higher prices.

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★ The global red lentil market is not considered heavily oversupplied. Canadian red lentil production has increased only marginally to around 1.8 million tonnes. Australia has harvested a good crop of about 1.9 million tonnes, while production in Turkey has been significantly reduced. With lower export prices this season, markets are expected to remain relatively balanced, and the downside risk to red lentil prices appears limited.

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★ The green lentil market is under much greater pressure. Strong crops in the United States and Canada, along with roughly 500,000 tonnes of additional supply from the Black Sea region, have created an oversupply situation. Canadian green lentil production could rise to around 1.7 million tonnes, up from about 750,000 tonnes last year. High container freight costs from Canada further reduce competitiveness.

★ Unless India absorbs large volumes, green lentil ending stocks could become burdensome. Green lentil prices are likely to remain weak, and a meaningful price recovery looks difficult in the near term.

★ In India, lentil acreage has increased, but imports have remained weak. Imports are expected to decline from last year. Given good domestic production, supplies should remain comfortable, and the market is likely to trade within a limited range with only modest upside.