Potential Rise in Wheat Prices Due to Sharp Decline in Exports from Russia

Moscow. The intense, ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has severely disrupted the export shipments of wheat—along with other agricultural products—from both nations. This is likely to complicate the global supply and availability of wheat, potentially driving up prices.

It is worth noting that Russia is the world’s largest exporter and third-largest producer of wheat, while Ukraine is also a major exporter of the grain.

Many countries across Asia and Africa—including Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—rely heavily on wheat imports from Russia.

Approximately 70 percent of Russia’s agricultural exports are typically shipped via ports and waterways in the Black Sea region, which are currently largely inaccessible.

For the past few months, Russia and Ukraine have been engaged in heavy bombardment of each other’s ports and cargo vessels, rendering these maritime routes unsafe for international trade.

Similarly, wheat exports from Ukraine have seen a drastic decline; about 85 percent of Ukraine’s agricultural exports are usually transported via the Black Sea.

Compared to the typical monthly average, wheat exports from Russia fell by 60 percent in August 2026, while shipments from Ukraine dropped by 66 percent.

Export performance remained weak throughout September, and there are few signs of improvement for October. Countries that were heavily dependent on wheat supplies from Russia and Ukraine are now being forced to seek imports from other exporting nations.