The future of the upcoming Kharif crops will depend on the intensity of El Niño.

05-Feb-2026 09:13 PM

New Delhi. Currently, the La Niña weather cycle has weakened but has not completely become inactive. As a result, the likelihood of a serious threat to the current Rabi crops is very low. However, there is a possibility of the emergence and arrival of the El Niño weather cycle in the second half of 2026, which could prove fatal for the upcoming Kharif crops.

The effects of the El Niño and La Niña weather cycles are different for India. Generally, during the La Niña weather cycle, the country receives good rainfall, which provides significant relief to agricultural crops.

Conversely, during the El Niño period, rainfall in India is low, irregular, and unpredictable, and there is a high risk of severe drought in many areas. This time, the La Niña weather cycle was weak from the beginning, and India did not receive sufficient rainfall.

Meanwhile, the weather has remained dry for a long time in the US, Canada, and Latin American countries, for which the La Niña weather cycle is considered responsible. Due to the influence of this same weather cycle, extremely heavy rainfall is occurring in Southeast Asia, especially in Malaysia.

As far as El Niño is concerned, its effects often lead to a prolonged period of insufficient rainfall and drought in the Asian continent, especially in India, and also in some parts of Africa. This year, El Niño is expected to arrive in June-July, which could prove more dangerous for India.

In 2023, due to this same El Niño, there was less rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, and at least 25 percent of the country's agricultural area was affected. This led to a decrease in food grain production.