Unlikely to see a major decline in cumin prices; sowing expected to be lower
New Delhi. Cumin prices witnessed mixed trading trends this week. After a firm start, prices remained subdued towards the end of the week. According to sources, while the recent surge in prices may lead to a higher-than-initially-forecasted acreage for cumin, the total area sown will still be lower compared to last year. It is worth noting that earlier estimates suggested a 35–40% decline in cumin sowing across major producing regions; however, following a recent price increase of ₹20–25, it is now anticipated that the decline will be in the range of 25–30%. Sowing has already commenced in Gujarat—a key producing state—while it is set to begin next month in Rajasthan. Sowing activities will be impacted this year due to water shortages. Available data indicates that cumin was sown across 11.18 lakh hectares last year, whereas in 2025, the sowing area was 11.71 lakh hectares.
No major decline expected
Market experts suggest that following the recent price rally, profit-booking is likely to emerge, which could lead to a short-term dip in prices—though not a significant one. Traders anticipate an increase in export demand for Indian cumin in the coming days, as overseas crop supplies are depleting. Furthermore, demand related to the upcoming month of Ramadan is expected to enter the market. Additionally, weather conditions following the sowing phase will play a crucial role in determining future price movements. Currently, cumin prices in the major producing regions are hovering between ₹220 and ₹250 per kilogram.
Stocks
According to informed sources, cumin exports have declined during the current season due to weak demand from China, resulting in ample stocks at production centers. Reports indicate that current cumin stocks in Gujarat are estimated at 1.8–2.0 million (18–20 lakh) bags, while stocks in Rajasthan are estimated at 2.8–3.0 million (28–30 lakh) bags—a quantity sufficient to last until the arrival of the new harvest.
Declining Production
Sources suggest that cumin production is forecast to decline in 2027. Production for the current season was estimated at 9.3–9.4 million (93–94 lakh) bags, compared to an estimated 9.7–9.8 million (97–98 lakh) bags in 2025. Experts believe that a reduction in the area under cultivation, combined with the impact of El Niño, will adversely affect the crop and, consequently, overall production.
Market Arrivals
Recent price increases have prompted farmers to sell more of their produce, leading to a rise in market arrivals. At the major trading hub of Unjha, arrivals have increased to 12,000–13,000 bags. Arrivals in Rajkot are currently between 1,800 and 2,000 bags, while the Merta market in Rajasthan is seeing arrivals of 2,000–2,500 bags. Additionally, the Nagaur and Jodhpur markets are each receiving 800–1,000 bags.
Reduced Exports
Due to the impact on exports to China, the volume of Indian cumin exports in the first quarter of the current financial year (2026–27) has fallen by 24 percent, while export earnings have recorded a decline of 26 percent. According to data released by the Spices Board, cumin exports during April–June 2026 stood at 47,916 tonnes, generating an export revenue of ₹1,118.11 crore. In the April–June 2025 period, exports amounted to 62,886 tonnes, with an export revenue of ₹1,514.61 crore. For the year 2025–26 (April–March), total cumin exports reached 196,800 tonnes, yielding a revenue of ₹4,611.15 crore.
