Canada exported peas well in the last two months but uncertainty about India persists
19-Nov-2024 12:33 PM
Canada has experienced strong pea exports during the first two months of the current crop year, with a particularly high volume of shipments compared to the same period last year. India continues to be the largest buyer, importing 387,100 tonnes, followed by China with 222,400 tonnes.
However, trade analysts are expressing concerns that exports may slow in the coming months due to the uncertainty surrounding India's import policies and the domestic pea harvest season in India.
The export data from the Canadian Grain Commission reveals that bulk pea exports reached 1.12 million tonnes (or 11.20 lakh tonnes) in the first 14 weeks of the current marketing season, up significantly from 720,000 tonnes (7.20 lakh tonnes) during the same period last year.
This strong export pace has outstripped the five-year average, but there are concerns that the rate may be unsustainable.
If Canada continues to export peas at this rapid pace, it could deplete stocks, leaving little for export in the second quarter of next year. This could lead to uncertainty in the third and fourth quarters of the marketing season.
A key factor influencing the market is India’s potential move to reimpose import duties on yellow peas. Analysts speculate that the Indian government could limit imports of yellow peas, along with other pulses, starting in February-March.
This coincides with the arrival of new domestic pulse crops such as gram (chickpeas) and kharif pulses like tuvar, urad, and moong, which could increase domestic supply and put downward pressure on prices.
To stabilize domestic prices, India may try to curb imports, which would directly impact Canadian pea exports.
In the past, Canadian pea exports have tended to be strong in the initial months of the marketing season, only to slow down as the season progresses.
A shift in India's import policies would likely have a significant impact on the Canadian pea market, which is already feeling the effects of a volatile and uncertain global trading environment.