El Niño's Impact Likely to Persist Until January 2027

04-May-2026 11:46 AM

New Delhi. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) states that most weather models indicate the activation of El Niño during India's monsoon season, with its prevalence and impact expected to persist until January 2027. It is noteworthy that the sowing and growth of both Kharif and Rabi crops in India take place during this very period. Due to El Niño, rainfall during these two seasons could be lower than usual, raising concerns that agricultural production may be adversely affected.

According to the Meteorological Department, the Southwest Monsoon is likely to reach the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 14–16; after remaining active there for some time, it will subsequently advance to the Indian mainland.

Currently, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the equatorial Pacific Ocean remains in a neutral phase; however, it appears to be progressing toward the formation of El Niño.

This formation and its associated impact could persist until January 2027. Although a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could prove conducive to monsoon rainfall, the intensity, magnitude, and dynamics of El Niño are likely to outweigh those of the IOD; consequently, monsoon rainfall could be impacted.

The cultivation of Kharif crops—including paddy, pigeon pea (Arhar), black gram (Urad), green gram (Moong), maize, sorghum (Jowar), pearl millet (Bajra), finger millet (Ragi), soybean, groundnut, and cotton—is set to commence next month. While the monsoon is likely to arrive in the country on schedule, its vigor and intensity may diminish as the season progresses.