Experts' opinion at the International Soya Conclave 2024 organized by SOPA at Brilliant Convention Center, Indore

14-Oct-2024 05:36 PM

Experts' opinion at the International Soya Conclave 2024 organized by SOPA at Brilliant Convention Center, Indore
★ Sunflower production in Ukraine, Russia, Poland is expected to decrease by 10-20 lakh tonnes. Earlier India used to import 70% sunflower oil from Ukraine and 30% from Russia, but now due to the war, 70% is being imported from Russia and 30% from Ukraine.
★ Turkey has now emerged as a new supplier. Turkey is importing sunflower from the world, processing it and selling it to Iran.
★ Palm oil consumption will increase in Indonesia due to bio diesel mandate.
★ The price of palm is expected to be 4050-4200 in the short term and 4450 in the long term, Vivek Pathak gave.
★ Import of edible oils is expected to increase in November. The rise in sunflower prices is expected to continue.
★ Sunflower FOB Ukraine price is 1045-1050$, Mersin 1110-1115$ and Ukraine 1130, CNF India price is 1135$/ton.
★ International prices of soya expected to rise.
★ Due to the ongoing pressure in Middle East countries, soya supply may come under pressure.
★ Weather is good in Brazil, it is raining in Argentina.
★ USDA did not make any changes in October figures.
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Vivek Pathak
★ India is expected to import 18 lakh tonnes of edible oils per month.
★ Demand for soya and sunflower oil may increase.
★ After December, demand for soft oil (soy oil, sunflower oil) will increase due to cold. Government will purchase soya from farmers.
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Sanjeev Asthana
★ Soya prices may reach above MSP due to government purchase, if government purchase weakens then prices may decrease.
★ Decrease in government purchase will affect supply-demand in the market.
★ Oil industry is surprised by government increasing import duty by 20%, it was expected that duty will be increased by 10% only.
★ On one hand duty increased by 20%, on the other hand oil prices increased by 10% in international market i.e. after imposing duty prices increased by 30%.
★ Government will have to make 3 efforts, first increase productivity, second government should not purchase soya which may disturb supply-demand in the market, third consumer policy will have to be reconsidered.
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Sudhakar Desai
★ Difficulty in soya meal export. There may be pressure on palm oil prices by the end of November. Palm oil prices are expected to decrease.
★ Soya oil and sunflower oil prices are expected to increase. Palm oil prices may decrease in the next 3 months.
★ Domestic consumption is expected to increase in Indonesia due to B-40 blending.
★ Exports to India may increase due to zero import duty in Nepal and Bangladesh.
★ Soya meal consumption is affected due to high production of DDGS.
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BN Pathak
★ States will suffer losses due to the purchase made by the government.
★ Transportation, warehousing and wastage costs will increase after purchasing at MSP.
★ Processing of soya is not only used for export but also in the domestic poultry industry.
★ The government will have to make efforts to increase soya oil production.
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Mehul Agarwal
★ In the last 7 years, soya production in West Africa has increased from 11 to 25 lakh tons.
★ African farmers are giving priority to soya instead of cotton and maize.
★ This year, due to drought in East Africa, productivity is expected to decrease by 30-40%, due to which many East African countries have stopped soya meal export.
★ Surplus stock of 12-13 lakh tons of soya is available in Africa.
★ Buffer stock will be created in the country due to the purchase being done by the government.
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Sandeep Guha
★ There is less hope of market growth in future, good crop in America and Brazil.
★ Soya crushing will increase in Argentina and Brazil, due to which soya meal production may increase and international markets may collapse.
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Ajay Parmar
★ There is no significant difference between supply and demand of soyabean production.
★ Due to rain in some areas, the moisture content is expected to increase.
★ Last year the price was 46-47 rupees per kg which may be 500 (+-200) rupees this year.
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Janak
★ During government purchase of soya, the purchase may be affected due to high moisture content.
★ Purchase is expected to increase if the moisture content improves.
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How will the market prices be: Experts' opinion
Vivek Pathak
★ Prices are expected to reach 5500 rupees in the next 4-5 months.
Sudhakar Desai
★ Palm oil prices are expected to reach 4500 ringgit in BMD in the next 3-4 months.
★ Palm oil is 60-70$/ton weaker than soya oil.
★ Prices are expected to be equal to soya by December i.e. 1150-1200$/ton.
★ Sunflower oil prices may remain at 1250$/ton.
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Janak
★ Soya prices may remain in the range of 4500/4700 rupees.
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Mehul Agarwal
★ If the Government of India purchases, then the price of soya can reach 5400/5500 rupees per quintal in January, February, March.
★ If there is not much purchase, the market may remain between 4200/4300 rupees.
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Sanjeev Asthana
★ Soya prices are expected to be 4800/5300 rupees.
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Amit Jain
★ The government has announced the purchase of soya, so DDFT has come as a new product.
★ In future, DDGS production will increase further to complete the blending.
★ Soya prices are expected to be 4400 rupees per quintal.
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Atul
★ NAFED is purchasing soya after 45 years, it has to be seen whether GMO soya import gets approval or not, if it gets, then India can become a dumping godown.
★ Soya prices are expected to be 4700/4750 (+-100).