Global Sugar Production Outlook for 2025/26 Season: USDA

23-May-2025 10:32 AM

Global Sugar Production Outlook for 2025/26 Season: USDA
★ Global sugar production is projected to increase by 8.6 million tons, reaching 189.3 million tons. Higher production in Brazil and India is expected to offset declines in the European Union. However, total global exports are forecast to decline due to reduced shipments from the EU and Thailand. Ending stocks are expected to rise, primarily due to increased inventories in India and China.
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Brazil:
★ Production is forecast to rise by 1.0 million tons, reaching a record 44.7 million tons.
★ A shift in the sugar/ethanol production ratio is expected — sugar's share may fall from 51% to 49%, while ethanol's share may rise from 49% to 51%.
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Thailand:
★ Production is forecast to increase by 2% to 10.3 million tons.
★ Exports are expected to decline due to competition from major exporters like Brazil, while stocks are projected to remain stable.
India:
★ Production is projected to increase by over 25%, reaching 35.3 million tons.
★ With higher supply, both exports and ending stocks are expected to rise.
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2024/25 Season — Revisions from November 2024 Forecast:
★ Global production was revised down by 5.9 million tons to 180.8 million tons.
★ Brazil's production was raised by 0.7 million tons to 43.7 million tons.
★ India's production was lowered by 7.5 million tons to 28.0 million tons.
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Global ending stocks were revised down by 7.1 million tons to 38.3 million tons:
★ Thailand's stocks increased by 768,000 tons to 7.6 million tons.
★ U.S. stocks increased by 515,000 tons to 1.8 million tons.
★ Pakistan's stocks dropped by 1.7 million tons to 2.0 million tons.
★ India’s stocks fell sharply by 7.9 million tons to 5.7 million tons due to production decline.