Impending Western Disturbance Could Hinder Monsoon's Progress

28-May-2026 08:42 PM

New Delhi. It appears that the Southwest Monsoon faces multifaceted threats this year. Despite conditions related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Indian Ocean remaining somewhat favorable,

the monsoon's pace has slowed down—currently lingering over Sri Lanka—due to a retrograde airflow over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. While the monsoon could have reached India from there within six to seven days, there is a looming apprehension that increased activity of a Western Disturbance during this interim period could create obstacles in its path.

Typically, the intensity of a Western Disturbance does not persist for an extended duration; however, should it succeed in stalling the monsoon's advancement, it could take a considerable amount of time for the monsoon to regain its intensity and momentum. Currently, the monsoon is expected to reach India by June 2–3; however, the presence of the Western Disturbance could potentially cause a further delay.