India's Sugar Situation (2024-25 Season):

19-Nov-2024 09:24 AM

India's Sugar Situation (2024-25 Season):
Production Forecast: India's sugar production in 2024-25 is estimated at 333 lakh tonnes, a 2% decrease from the previous season (2023-24).
Old Stock: As of 30 September 2024, there is an 84 lakh tonnes old stock remaining, lower than the earlier estimate of 91 lakh tonnes.
Market Dynamics: The sluggish domestic demand has led to a decline in sugar prices. The market remains heavily dependent on government-imposed quotas. Expectations are that wedding season demand could provide a temporary boost.
Global Sugar Production Trends:
World Sugar Deficit (2024-25): The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a 35.8 lakh tonnes global sugar shortage for the 2024-25 season.
Global Production: The world’s total sugar production for 2024-25 is estimated at 1793 lakh tonnes, a 1.1% decrease from 1813 lakh tonnes in 2023-24.

Brazil's Sugar Production:
Crushing Season: Sugarcane crushing in Brazil is winding down as mills prepare for the off-season, with 38 mills already closed.
Impact of Weather: The season was adversely affected by drought, heat, and fires, leading to a decline in production. Additionally, rain led to some mills stopping crushing earlier than planned.
Production Data: For 15-31 October, UNICA reported 17.85 lakh tonnes of sugar produced, a 32% drop compared to the same period last year.
Overall Production: In the Central South Division, sugar production reached 370 lakh tonnes by October. Konaba revised Brazil's total production for 2024-25 to 420 lakh tonnes, down from the earlier estimate of 427 lakh tonnes.

Thailand’s Sugar Production:
Production Growth: Thailand’s sugar production for 2024-25 is projected to increase by 18% to 103.5 lakh tonnes, up from 87.7 lakh tonnes in the previous season.
Market Implications:
Brazil’s reduced sugar output, combined with the global shortage forecast, could lead to tighter global supply, which might support sugar prices. On the other hand, India's sluggish demand and reliance on quotas create a more constrained market in India.
This suggests that while Brazil and Thailand are seeing shifts in their production (declines in Brazil and increases in Thailand), India’s market dynamics are more focused on domestic consumption and regulatory controls.