La Niña activity likely to persist for a few months

18-Nov-2025 04:06 PM

Thiruvananthapuram. This year, La Niña's duration is expected to be quite short, and its intensity is likely to be limited. The APEC Climate Center's El Niño-Southern Oscillation Alert System has now been deactivated again, after previously being classified as a "La Niña Watch."

This means that the current period of La Niña conditions may end within the next few months. The Korea Climate Institute states that there is a 53-54 percent chance of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation becoming neutral during December-February, which is expected to increase to over 60 percent by March-May 2026.

The oscillation is expected to be (-) 0.76 degrees Celsius in December 2025, and could reach 0.47 degrees Celsius by May 2026.

This will shift from a negative position to a positive one, and the dynamics and intensity of the La Niña weather cycle will become extremely slow or weak.

It's worth noting that this oscillation is a state between El Niño and La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, which is usually neutral. When an imbalance occurs, the likelihood of one of the two weather cycles becoming active increases.

Due to the La Niña weather cycle, India, other South Asian countries, and Australia and New Zealand experience a lack of rainfall, but other nearby countries, including Brazil and Argentina, are expected to receive heavy rainfall.

October to January is the time for sowing and growing the Rabi crop in India. This period requires light to moderate rainfall. Since the La Niña weather cycle will be weak, the likelihood of India being affected is very low.