Monsoon rainfall expected to be above normal average in June
28-May-2025 11:00 AM
New Delhi. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had initially predicted 105 percent rainfall in April compared to the long-term average at the national level during the southwest monsoon season, which spans the four-month period from June to September.
This forecast has now been revised upward to 106 percent. Additionally, the IMD has projected that rainfall in June 2025 will be 108 percent of the normal average, which is expected to benefit farmers in the timely sowing of Kharif crops.
It is worth noting that cumulative rainfall between 105 and 110 percent of the long-term average is considered above normal. This year, the monsoon is set to arrive eight days ahead of schedule and is progressing at a satisfactory pace.
According to the IMD, during this monsoon season, rainfall is expected to be normal or above normal across most of the country, with the exception of the Northeast region and parts of Bihar. Specifically, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Meghalaya are likely to receive below-normal rainfall.
Due to the expected above-normal rainfall in June, maximum temperatures across the country may remain below normal, reducing the likelihood of heat waves or 'loo' conditions. Typically, the average rainfall for the month of June is 165.4 mm.
This year, above-normal rainfall is anticipated in the major rain-dependent agricultural areas, also known as the core zone. There is a 56 percent probability of heavy rainfall in these regions.
The central and western parts of the country, which rely heavily on monsoon rains, are expected to see favorable conditions, potentially boosting the production of Kharif crops, especially pulses and oilseeds.
This could help reduce the country’s dependency on imports of pulses and edible oils. Maize production is also expected to be strong this season.
However, even in this promising scenario, the even distribution of rainfall remains crucial. Torrential rainfall in some parts of the country can lead to severe flooding, while inadequate rainfall in other areas can cause drought.
Both extremes can significantly impact agricultural output, damaging crops in flood-prone areas and stalling growth in drought-affected regions.