News Capsule: 2026 Monsoon Likely Below Normal, El Niño Impact: Private Weather Agency
07-Apr-2026 09:51 AM
News Capsule: 2026 Monsoon Likely Below Normal, El Niño Impact: Private Weather Agency
★ Private weather agency Skymet Weather has projected that India’s 2026 southwest monsoon is likely to be below normal. According to the agency, seasonal rainfall is expected to be around 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a possible deviation of ±5%. Total rainfall is estimated at about 817 mm, placing it in the below-normal category.
★ The monsoon is expected to begin on a stable note in June, but rainfall may weaken between July and September. A sharper decline is likely during August and September.
★ The primary reason behind this outlook is the expected return of El Niño, which is typically associated with reduced and erratic rainfall in India. It may develop in the early phase of the monsoon and strengthen towards the end of the year.
★ Regionally, below-normal rainfall is expected in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and parts of North India. Rainfed areas in central and western India may also face deficits. In contrast, eastern and northeastern regions are likely to receive above-normal rainfall, while southern India may see near-normal precipitation.
★ Overall, the 2026 monsoon is expected to start on a balanced note but turn weaker and more irregular in the latter half, increasing risks for agriculture, especially in rain-dependent regions.