News Capsule: Barclays India Report: Weak Monsoon May Push Up Food Inflation
02-Apr-2026 01:34 PM
News Capsule: Barclays India Report: Weak Monsoon May Push Up Food Inflation
★ According to Barclays India, the 2026 monsoon could be 5–10% below normal.
★ During July–September, a strengthening El Nino may increase the risk of deficient rainfall.
★ Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh are likely to be the most affected, potentially impacting kharif crop sowing.
★ If the situation worsens (up to a 20% deficit), production may decline, and the government could release buffer stocks or impose export restrictions.
★ Rainfall in June is expected to be normal, but weakness may begin in July, with August–September being the most vulnerable months.
★ Overall, a weak monsoon could push up food inflation, though the government has tools to manage the situation.