★ The Food Ministry has estimated the country’s gross sugar production for the current marketing year (starting October 1, 2025) at 34 million tonnes, while the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has pegged it slightly higher at 35 million tonnes.

★ Given the increasing diversion of sugar for ethanol production, weaker sugarcane crop in some states, and delayed start of mills, the government is maintaining a cautious stance on export permissions. According to the ministry, after diverting about 4 million tonnes of sugar for ethanol, the net sugar output is likely to be around 30 million tonnes, while India’s annual consumption stands at about 28.5 million tonnes.

★ However, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected India’s sugar production at 35.3 million tonnes, nearly 25% higher than last year.

★ Despite an increase in sugarcane acreage in Maharashtra and Karnataka, heavy rains have affected around 10 million tonnes of sugarcane in Maharashtra. Most sugar mills are expected to begin crushing operations in November.

★ Experts say that if the government’s estimates hold true, the exportable surplus will be limited to around 1.5 million tonnes.