News Capsule: Ukraine Sunflower Crop Hit Hard, Price Weakness Unlikely Now
27-Oct-2025 04:57 PM
News Capsule: Ukraine Sunflower Crop Hit Hard, Price Weakness Unlikely Now
★ Ukraine’s sunflower oil crop has suffered major weather-related damage, bringing the country’s total production estimate down to around 10 million metric tonnes — significantly lower than previous years. Russia’s output may also decline, reducing overall global supply pressure.
★ With limited arrivals expected, the earlier anticipation of a price drop during the harvest period now seems unlikely. Farmers are reluctant to sell, while crushers need to keep buying seeds to maintain operations. This imbalance could keep supply tight and prices firm in the near term.
★ Currently, sunflower oil offers for India and the Middle East are around USD 1,350 per tonne (CIF). For November–December shipments, offers remain near USD 1,350, with around 100,000 tonnes of December demand still uncovered. India also needs to make fresh purchases for the January–March period.
★ While some short-term softness could emerge in December due to harvest pressure, prices are unlikely to fall below USD 1,250 per tonne (CIF India) given the low crop.
★ Higher sunflower oil prices could encourage greater imports of competing oils such as soybean oil and palm oil in the coming months.
Important Disclaimer:
This report is for informational purposes only I-Grain India does not take any responsibility for profits or losses and does not promote any specific market movement (bullish or bearish). *Please make decisions based on your own judgment and understanding.