Rising Rice Stock

08-Mar-2025 12:41 PM

Rising Rice Stock
New Delhi. While India may be experiencing a slight shortage of wheat, leading to high market prices, the supply and availability of rice remain exceptionally smooth, with stable pricing trends. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected that India's total rice production for the 2024-25 season will reach an all-time high of 145 million tons, significantly surpassing the 2023-24 season’s production of 137.82 million tons.
Government warehouses not only hold a massive stockpile of rice but also continue to see a steady increase in reserves. The Indian government has already made all whole-grain rice exports duty-free and unrestricted, and it is now considering lifting the ban on the export of 100% broken rice, which has been in place since September 2022. It remains to be seen how competitive Indian rice will be in the global market in terms of pricing. Major rice-exporting countries like Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan are reducing their prices to counter India's dominance.
India remains the world's leading rice exporter, accounting for 40-42% of global rice trade. The country holds a substantial stock of exportable rice, along with significant reserves in the central pool. The USDA has estimated that India will export at least 22.5 million tons of rice in 2025. If the shipment of 100% broken rice is permitted, achieving this export target will not be difficult.
On the other hand, rice exports from Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan are expected to decline. A global organization has projected that worldwide rice production for the 2024-25 season will reach 543 million tons, up from 534.8 million tons in 2023-24. Similarly, with carryover stocks, total global rice availability is expected to rise from 728.5 million tons to 742.8 million tons. Total global consumption is estimated to increase from 527.5 million tons to 539 million tons, while exports are set to improve from 59 million tons to 59.9 million tons. The final surplus stock is predicted to grow from 199.7 million tons to 206 million tons, with India playing a crucial role in this global scenario.