Sugar Futures Surge on Brazil Output Drop

25-Dec-2025 04:30 PM

New York. A leading consulting firm has projected that sugar production in Brazil, a major Latin American country, will decline by 3.91 percent from 43.5 million tons in the 2025-26 season to 41.8 million tons in the 2026-27 season, supporting global futures prices.

Raw sugar futures for the March contract on the New York exchange rose by 0.12 cents per pound (0.79 percent), and white sugar futures on the London exchange increased by $3.30 (0.76 percent) per ton. The consulting firm also projected that sugar exports from Brazil during the 2026-27 season would fall by 11 percent to 30 million tons.

Last week, sugar futures prices fell to their lowest level in the past five weeks. The Indian government has already permitted the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar, although there were speculations that the export quota might be further increased.

The Food Secretary had indicated that if a large surplus stock were to accumulate due to high production, an increase in the export quota could be considered.

India is the world's second-largest sugar producer after Brazil, and production is expected to increase this season compared to the previous one.

ISMA has projected a 18.8 percent jump in sugar production to 31 million tons, while the use of sugar for ethanol production is expected to decrease to 3.4 million tons. This could lead to a significant increase in total stock.

Between October 1 and December 15, 2025, the country's sugar production was estimated at 7.85 million tons, which is 28 percent higher than the previous year.