Sugar Production Estimated at 30 Million Tonnes After Ethanol Diversion
14-Oct-2025 10:45 AM
New Delhi. The Union Food Ministry has projected gross domestic sugar production at 34 million tonnes during the current marketing season (October-September) 2025-26, which is 0.9 million tonnes lower than the initial estimate of 34.9 million tonnes made by the apex industry body,
the Indian Sugar and Bio Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA). The Food Ministry's estimate is based on data provided by major producing states.
However, despite this improved potential production, the government wants to exercise extreme caution in allowing sugar exports, given the possibility of lower sugar production than expected and the potential for increased sugarcane use in ethanol production.
The government has allowed sugar mills to use unlimited quantities of sugarcane for ethanol production. Furthermore, there are indications that crushing at sugar mills will begin late this year, and there are also concerns about production in the next season.
According to senior official sources, there is no rush, and sugar prices remain stable within a certain range despite the festivals of Dussehra and Diwali falling in October.
However, the government is cautious this time, given last year's experience. Initially, a strong sugar production was anticipated for the 2024-25 marketing season, and the industry had a large backlog of sugar. In light of this, the government approved the export of 1 million tons of sugar.
However, actual sugar production fell significantly below the previous estimates, and the industry's stocks also declined significantly.
The government's focus is on sugar production during the October-December 2025 quarter. In leading producing states like Maharashtra, there are fears of a decline in the average sugarcane yield and the average sugar recovery rate from sugarcane.
This casts doubt on a significant increase in sugar production. The government can only take a decision once the production situation becomes clearer.