Thailand's Rice Exports Expected to Decline Sharply Next Year

26-Dec-2025 05:07 PM

Bangkok. Although Thailand, a Southeast Asian country, has maintained its position as the second-largest rice exporter after India for several years, it may fall to third place, behind Vietnam, in 2026. 

There is intense competition between Thailand and Vietnam for the second and third positions in rice exports, while India ships more rice than the combined exports of these two countries. India accounts for 40-42 percent of the global rice export market.

According to the Thai Rice Exporters Association, total rice exports from Thailand are expected to decrease by 12.5 percent in 2026 compared to 2025, falling to around 7 million tons, due to the strong Thai baht.

This could make Thai rice more expensive for foreign buyers. Typically, Thailand's rice export offer prices are higher than those of other Asian supplier countries.

Exporters say that the Thai baht's exchange rate against the US dollar remains significantly higher and stronger than the Indian and Pakistani rupees, the Vietnamese dong, and the Myanmar kyat. This could reduce the interest of importing countries in Thai rice.

Importers in key Thai rice buying countries – Indonesia, China, the Philippines, and Malaysia – have become more cautious. They are looking for alternative markets for cheaper rice. In other importing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America,

Thai rice exporters will face tough competition from countries like India, Vietnam, Pakistan, Myanmar, and the United States. However, heavy storms and severe flooding have partially affected the rice crop in countries like Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines.