The impact of El Niño is expected to reduce rainfall during the monsoon season

17-Feb-2026 05:49 PM

Mumbai. A private weather forecasting agency says that the La Niña weather cycle has reached its final stage, and the neutral phase of the El Niño weather cycle may begin in March. This neutral phase may gradually progress into the active phase of El Niño, leading to below-normal rainfall during the four-month southwest monsoon season from June to September. Typically, the monsoon in India weakens somewhat during El Niño years.

According to the weather agency, there is a 75 percent chance that the La Niña phase will shift into the neutral phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific by March 2026.

The slow development of the El Niño weather cycle may prove more concerning and harmful than the sudden onset of the El Niño weather cycle. There is a 60 percent chance that the slow development of El Niño will impact the dynamics, intensity, and intensity of the monsoon. This situation could also occur in 2026, potentially leading to reduced rainfall in many other regions and countries, including India.

According to the agency, a neutral state in the weather cycle occurs when neither El Niño nor La Niña is active. This situation is likely to persist until late spring in the Northern Hemisphere. After this, La Niña will weaken, and El Niño will strengthen. Its increased intensity and activity will affect the movement of the southwest monsoon.

The monsoon is considered crucial for the Indian agricultural sector, as it is during this season that the country cultivates and grows Kharif crops, including rice, pigeon pea, black gram, green gram, maize, sorghum, millet, finger millet, soybean, peanuts, and cotton. Good and timely rainfall is essential for optimal production.