The monsoon is expected to be weak in July-August due to the influence of El Niño

20-Feb-2026 04:41 PM

Mumbai. A climate forecasting center has stated that the El Niño weather cycle could impact rainfall in many Asian countries in the coming months. El Niño activity is expected to increase in the second half of the current year. According to the weather center, the likelihood of below-normal rainfall in India during June-August 2026 is increasing.

It is noteworthy that the southwest monsoon is active in India for four months from June to September, during which time the sowing and growth of Kharif crops takes place. India receives the highest rainfall in July-August.

According to the weather forecast center, neutral conditions may persist from March to May 2026, meaning that neither El Niño nor La Niña weather cycle will be very active during this period. However, the El Niño weather cycle may gradually increase in activity thereafter. This will likely impact the dynamics and intensity of the southwest monsoon.

During the Kharif season, many crops including paddy, pigeon pea (tuvar), black gram, green gram, maize, sorghum, millet, ragi, soybean, groundnut and cotton are cultivated on a large scale in India and for better production of these crops, good monsoon rains are necessary.