USDA puts global wheat availability at 1.09 billion tonnes

17-Nov-2025 06:16 PM

Chicago. In its latest monthly (November) report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its estimate for total global wheat availability for the 2025-26 marketing season to 1.09 billion tons, considering expected production increases in major producing and exporting countries and high outstanding stocks.

Meanwhile, the rice supply estimate has been slightly reduced. This is primarily due to low outstanding stocks and decreased production in Pakistan and Senegal.

The USDA report states that due to the suspension of government assistance from October 1 to November 12, some of the data typically included in the November report could not be included.

Regarding the US balance sheet (demand and supply), only available government data was used, and in some cases, limited information was available.

The USDA monthly report has raised its estimate for total wheat supply by 11.7 million tons to 10.9 million tons.

Under this, availability is expected to increase in major exporting countries: Kazakhstan, Argentina, the European Union, the United States, Australia, Russia, and Canada.

The biggest change is for Kazakhstan, where wheat production is projected to increase by 2.9 million tons to approximately 11.9 million tons.

Similar to production, USDA has also increased its estimate of global wheat consumption for 2025-26 by 4.3 million tons to 818.9 million tons.

This suggests increased wheat use, particularly in Russia, Kazakhstan, and the European Union, for feed production and residue utilization. Global wheat trade is also expected to increase by 2.5 million tons to 217.2 million tons.

Exports from Australia, Argentina, and Kazakhstan will increase, while shipments from Russia may decrease slightly. Global outstanding wheat stocks are projected to increase by 7.4 million tonnes to 271.4 million tonnes at the end of the 2025-26 marketing season.