Yesterday, the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India (RFMFI) released its Rabi 2026 wheat production estimate.
25-Apr-2026 08:45 AM
Yesterday, the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India (RFMFI) released its Rabi 2026 wheat production estimate.
★ According to a survey conducted by a private company, the production estimate was placed at 110.65 million tonnes, compared to 109.63 million tonnes last year.
★ The survey noted that while crops were affected in several parts of the country, increased acreage led to a rise in overall production.
★ In this context, iGrain India interacted with several wheat traders and found that these estimates may be on the higher side, with actual production likely to be lower.
★ The government has also increased procurement targets: in Madhya Pradesh from 7.8 million tonnes to 10 million tonnes, in Uttar Pradesh from 1 million tonnes to 2.5 million tonnes, in Rajasthan from 2.1 million tonnes to 2.35 million tonnes, and in Uttarakhand marginally to 0.015 million tonnes.
★ The total procurement target has been raised from 30 million tonnes to 34.5 million tonnes.
★ It is important to note that except for Madhya Pradesh, farmer participation in government procurement remains relatively low in states like Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. Last year, procurement in Madhya Pradesh was high due to bonus incentives, but this year it has not increased significantly due to weaker arrivals.
★ If procurement reaches 34.5 million tonnes and is added to the existing stock of 22 million tonnes, the total wheat availability would be around 56.5 million tonnes, while PDS consumption stands at about 20–22.5 million tonnes.
★ Based on these figures, closing stocks by the end of the season could be around 30–35 million tonnes.
★ It remains to be seen how procurement progresses in these states.
★ iGrain India believes procurement may not increase significantly in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, but could rise in Madhya Pradesh.
★ Overall, the wheat trade may remain challenging in the coming period.