Canadian dry peas: AAFC April Report
18-Apr-2026 12:48 PM
Canadian dry peas: AAFC April Report
2025-26 outlook
★ Exports are forecast to rise to about 2.5 million tonnes (Mt). India and Bangladesh will remain the top export markets for Canadian dry peas. Despite higher exports, carry-out stocks are expected to increase sharply due to a 1.1 Mt rise in total supply. Average prices are expected to decline significantly from 2024-25, with lower prices across all pea types.
★ Monthly exports from August to February were below the five-year average in most months, except August and February. Market instability due to China’s import duties affected demand. Exports to Bangladesh increased compared to the five-year average. With ★ China removing the 100% import tariff, export demand from China is expected to improve in the remaining crop year.
★ India’s winter pulse production is forecast at 16.2 Mt, up 7% from last year, but it remains below the five-year average.
★ In March, on-farm prices for both yellow and green peas in Saskatchewan increased by $15 per tonne. Green peas traded at a $65/t premium over yellow peas in March. For the full crop year, the premium is expected to average $105/t, compared to $208/t in 2024-25.
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2026-27 outlook
★ Seeded area is expected to decline by 12% to 1.25 million hectares (Mha). Production is forecast to fall by 25% to below 3.0 Mt, with total supply dropping to 4.3 Mt. Exports are projected to increase further to 2.7 Mt. Carry-out stocks are expected to fall sharply to below 1.0 Mt, which is likely to support a recovery in prices.
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United States (USDA)
★ US dry pea seeded area for 2026-27 is forecast at 1.17 million acres (0.475 Mha), slightly higher than last year, with a decline in North Dakota expected to be offset by an increase in Montana.
★ In 2025-26, higher supply is expected to keep prices under pressure. In 2026-27, lower production and tighter stocks could support a price recovery. India and Bangladesh will continue to be key demand drivers, while China’s policy decisions will remain a major factor influencing global market direction.