Despite the bearish environment in edible oils, the spirits of mustard stockists are high

09-Jun-2025 01:37 PM

Delhi. Due to limited arrivals in the markets of the producing areas, mustard has remained stable amid sporadic fluctuations. Looking at the market trend at this time, there are chances of improvement in the coming days.

According to trade sources, during March / May, about 45 lakh tonnes of mustard has arrived in the markets. While crushing is estimated to be around 35 lakh tonnes. It is clear from these figures that the plants do not have much stock. This year the production was estimated to be 111.50 lakh tonnes across the country.

There was a declining trend in mustard sowing in the country this year. Sowing work was hampered due to the indifference of the weather - Overall sowing area in the country was 89.3 lakh hectares, which was 93.73 lakh hectares in the year 2023-2024.

It is clear from these figures that there was a decline of 4.70 lakh hectares in sowing. After sowing, everyone's eyes were on the weather. As time passed, the market started changing. Overall, the weather was favorable to the crop.

With the blessings of the weather, productivity in Uttar Pradesh increased tremendously, while in Rajasthan, the weather affected the crop in some areas. In Haryana, the productivity improved compared to last year - yet the decline in sowing could not be compensated by productivity.

Therefore, production was estimated to be around 111.25 lakh tons. Although some experts were saying that the production was less than the estimate.

In Jaipur, the main market of trade, the price of mustard is currently being quoted at Rs 6650/6675 per quintal, which had reached the level of Rs 6700 per quintal in the past days. However, during the current season, due to the pressure of crop arrivals in the month of March, the price had come down to the level of Rs 5900 per quintal, which did not return to that level even after the arrival of crops in abundance.

After the oil-oilseed seminar, most of the traders were expecting the price to come down, but due to the support of mustard purchase, the price kept on increasing. Recently, with the aim of controlling the rising price of edible oils, the government has reduced the duty on the import of crude edible oils by 10 percent, as a result of which the price of palm oil, soya oil and sunflower oil has come down in the domestic market, but due to the strong position of mustard, mustard oil is seen to be out of this recession.

If we look at the movement of edible oils in the domestic market during the current month, the price of soya oil has come down by Rs 40, the price of rice bran oil has come down by Rs 30 per 10 kg, but the price of mustard oil has increased by Rs 40 per 10 kg. A fall in the price of soya and palm oil is not being ruled out in the coming days, but due to the strong condition of mustard oil and consumption of mustard, it is not seen to be going down.

At present, the mustard stock is likely to be 83/83.50 lakh tons with government organizations - producers and millers across the country. While the domestic consumption is estimated to be around 10/11 lakh tons per month. The arrival of the new crop starts during the month of February, so it can be said that there is nine months left for the consumption of mustard.

Even if the consumption of 10 lakh tons of mustard remains in the coming months, 90 lakh tons of mustard will be required, while the mustard stock is around 83/84 lakh tons, out of which government organizations NAFED and HAFED are estimated to have 15 lakh tons including new and old, in which 7 lakh tons is old and new is around 10 lakh tons.

There are reports of crushing of 1.5 lakh tons out of this 17 lakh tons. Looking at the low production and consumption, traders, millers, analysts and producers were all predicting that the price of mustard will increase this year.

As time passed, mustard has been seen moving on the path of increase with some jolts. Looking at the market trend and stock, consumption, there is a possibility of Jaipur price crossing Rs 7000 at this time. After this, there may be some profit booking and selling in mustard.

For a long time, the arrival of mustard has remained around 4.5/5 lakh bags daily across the country. Which shows the strong grip of stockists because even after the reduction in import duty on edible oils by the government, the fear of recession in mustard was not seen in anyone, and the arrival remained at its normal level in the markets across the country.

Business sources say that it is very difficult for the arrival of mustard to increase until the price of mustard does not cross Rs 7000 in Jaipur. In the coming days, the consumption of pickle industry will also be in mustard oil, due to which there is no possibility of a fall in the price. Due to the strong position of mustard oil, the purchase of plants will also remain in mustard.

The possibility of increase in the price of soya oil has faded at this time due to the reduction in the import duty of crude edible oils by the government and the attitude of Brazil, Argentina, the effect of which can be seen on the oil market, but mustard oil has its own strong consumption in North India.

Due to which the position of mustard oil will remain different from other edible oils. Therefore, even in the environment of recession in the oil market, the spirits of mustard stockists and producers are still high. Due to which the possibility of increase in price remains at this time amidst sporadic fluctuations.