Due to Fall in CPO Prices, Palm Oil Imports in India Likely to Increase

28-Apr-2025 06:05 PM

Kuala Lumpur, April 28, 2025 – The price of crude palm oil (CPO) has started to soften, dropping below the price of soybean oil, and analysts predict this trend will continue until at least the third quarter of 2025. As a result, India's demand for palm oil imports is expected to rise in the coming months.

Between December 2024 and February 2025, India's monthly palm oil imports fell sharply, mainly due to high prices. Although there was a slight recovery in March,

import levels remained lower compared to the previous year. With palm oil prices beginning to decline in April, a positive impact on imports is anticipated by May-June.

Typically, the export offer price of palm oil is lower than that of soybean oil and sunflower oil.

However, between November and March, palm oil prices had remained higher. Analysts believe the recent price correction will revive interest among Indian importers.

Additionally, the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China — including mutual high import duties on soybeans and related products — are likely to boost China's demand for palm oil as a substitute.

A leading market analyst mentioned that palm oil production levels in Malaysia and Indonesia are expected to remain high at least until October 2025.

Therefore, exporters may keep palm oil prices attractive relative to soybean oil to drive exports. Consequently, palm oil is likely to remain competitively priced compared to soy oil through the July-September quarter.

Looking ahead, while soy oil prices may ease once new soybean crops start arriving from the United States in September-October, the peak production season for palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia will be approaching its end, potentially leading to firmer palm oil prices later in the year.