El Niño likely to impact monsoon rains

19-Jan-2026 09:08 PM

Thiruvananthapuram: A report by the APEC Climate Center states that the drought-inducing El Niño weather pattern could arrive by July this year, potentially impacting the southwest monsoon rains in India.

It is noteworthy that the southwest monsoon is active for four months, from June to September, with the highest rainfall occurring during July and August. Kharif crops such as rice, pigeon pea (tur), black gram, green gram, sorghum, millet, maize, ragi, soybean, groundnut, and cotton are cultivated during this period.

According to weather experts, the flow of moisture-laden winds towards India is disrupted during the El Niño weather cycle.

If El Niño is particularly strong, it could lead to reduced rainfall during the monsoon season, potentially hindering the sowing and growth of Kharif crops. El Niño often leads to reduced rainfall and drought in Asian countries, especially India.

In previous years, during El Niño years, the southwest monsoon in India either arrived late or was significantly weaker. This increased the risk of drought in many parts of the country and caused considerable damage to Kharif crops.

However, the Climate Center says that there may be sufficient rainfall in India before the arrival of the El Niño weather cycle. This would help in starting the early sowing of Kharif crops.

In 2023, the El Niño weather pattern arrived in June and persisted for approximately 11 months. This significantly affected the monsoon in India.

2024 was considered the hottest year on record, and food grains—especially rice and pulses—suffered damage.

Consequently, food inflation in the country increased considerably. 2025 was also considered the hottest year globally, and temperatures are projected to remain above normal levels in many parts of the world during 2026.