Food Inflation Likely to Remain High During Festive Season

27-Aug-2026 06:18 PM

New Delhi. The intensifying El Niño weather cycle is expected to adversely affect agricultural production in India and several other countries, potentially driving up food inflation once again.

The risk is particularly high for India as the festive season has commenced and is set to continue through November. Although fresh arrivals of various Kharif crops will begin after mid-September—with supply volumes picking up in October—market prices for certain key food commodities may still remain elevated.

Between September and November 2026, prices of sugar, pulses, and edible oils are likely to remain high, while prices of rice, wheat, maize, sorghum (jowar), pearl millet (bajra), finger millet (ragi), and cotton may see a moderate rise.

Demand for and consumption of dry fruits and spices are expected to increase. Consumption of wheat products is also likely to rise, though the government holds substantial wheat stocks.

The government is awaiting a price uptick to initiate sales from its reserves under the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS). While sugar prices are currently declining, a future rise cannot be ruled out.

Among pulses, prices of *chana* (gram) and *tur* (pigeon pea) may firm up, while prices of edible oils—specifically soy, palm, mustard, and groundnut oils—could strengthen. Fresh arrivals of soybean, groundnut, and sunflower crops will begin to accelerate from October.