Global Rice Market Prices Expected to Remain Soft

17-Sep-2025 05:52 PM

Rome. Despite some damage to the rice crop due to floods and rains in countries like India and Pakistan, global rice production is expected to remain adequate and high stocks are expected. A lack of corresponding demand is expected to further soften prices, even though global market prices are already at a seven- to eight-year low.

In India, heavy southwest monsoon rains and severe floods in some states, particularly Punjab, have damaged the rice crop. However, the area under rice cultivation has increased by 8.45 lakh hectares from last year's 430.06 lakh hectares to 438.51 lakh hectares this year.

Therefore, despite limited crop damage in some areas, national rice production is expected to be approximately equal to or slightly higher than last year's. Had natural disasters not struck, rice production could have reached new record levels.

The US Department of Agriculture projects increased rice production in Brazil and Colombia and decreased consumption in the United States and Myanmar during the 2025-26 season.

This suggests a slight decrease in rice exports from India and Pakistan, potentially leading to an increase in global outstanding stocks. Rice stocks in India are expected to increase.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), a United Nations agency, the global market price of rice fell to its lowest level in several years during August 2025 due to weak demand amid ample supply and availability.

The FAO estimates global rice production to increase by 5.5 million tons from 549.9 million tons in the 2024-25 season to 555.4 million tons in the 2025-26 season. India is the world's leading rice exporter, so production there is a focus of attention.