Global Rice Stocks Projected to Reach 737.3 Million Tonnes

New Delhi: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its estimate for total global rice availability by 0.7 million tonnes compared to September, setting it at 737.3 million tonnes, driven by expectations of higher carryover stocks in India, Bangladesh, and Japan. Conversely, rice production is projected to decline in countries such as the Philippines, Pakistan, and Russia during the 2026-27 season compared to 2025-26.

In its September report, the USDA had estimated a carryover surplus stock of 197 million tonnes by the end of the 2026-27 season; this figure has now been raised by 1.5 million tonnes to 198.5 million tonnes. Carryover stocks are expected to remain high in India and Japan, while rice stocks are likely to decrease in the Philippines, China, and Indonesia.

The USDA has lowered its estimate for global rice consumption by 0.8 million tonnes, setting it at 538.8 million tonnes; rice usage may decline in several countries across Asia and Africa. The forecast for global rice trade has also been reduced by 1.3 million tonnes to 61.4 million tonnes, with rice exports from India and the US likely to fall.