Global Sugar Supply Expected to Face Growing Complexities

07-Apr-2026 03:43 PM

São Paulo: Due to the rising global market prices of crude oil, Brazil is expected to place a special emphasis on ethanol production this season, which could lead to a decline in sugar output. Since Brazil is the world's leading producer and exporter of sugar,

a reduction in its domestic production would curtail the global supply of sugar, thereby increasing the likelihood of a surge in prices within the international market. This scenario could present a significant opportunity for Indian millers to boost their sugar exports.

During the 2025-26 marketing season (April–March), Brazil exported approximately 33 million tonnes of sugar; however, exports are projected to drop to around 29 million tonnes during the 2026-27 season. Bridging this gap of 4 million tonnes will not be an easy task for other nations, as no substantial increase in sugar production is anticipated in India,

Thailand, Australia, or the European Union. Furthermore, Brazil's total sugar production for the current year is also expected to decline from 43 million tonnes to below the 40-million-tonne mark. A reduction in supplies from Brazil could consequently lead to a rise in the global demand for Indian sugar.