Global Wheat Availability Expected to Reach 1.10 Billion Tons

10-Apr-2026 05:41 PM

Chicago. In its April report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its estimate for global wheat availability during the 2025-26 season upward by 1.5 million tons compared to its March report, setting it at 1.103 billion tons; this figure encompasses both current production and carryover stocks from the previous season. Specifically, the report projects an increase in production, particularly within the European Union and Russia.

Conversely, citing the likelihood of reduced wheat utilization in India for food, seed, and industrial purposes, the USDA has lowered its estimate for global wheat consumption by 4.7 million tons, setting it at 820.1 million tons. According to the report, the stock data released by the Government of India for the first 11 months of the 2025-26 marketing season indicates that domestic wheat consumption is likely to fall short of previous projections.

The report further suggests that global wheat trade is expected to reach 221.9 million tons—a figure 300,000 tons lower than the March estimate. Although wheat exports from Russia and Kazakhstan are expected to rise, this increase is unlikely to fully offset the anticipated decline in exports from Ukraine, Australia,

and Brazil. Driven by increased production and reduced consumption, global wheat carryover stocks are projected to rise to 282.13 million tons—an increase over the March estimate of 276.96 million tons. Major wheat-producing nations include China,

India, Russia, the United States, Canada, Australia, the European Union, and Argentina, among others. Within the European Union, France and Germany stand as the leading wheat-producing nations.