International Corn Markets Update

30-Nov-2024 08:03 AM

International Corn Markets Update
During the Thanksgiving trade break, President-elect Donald Trump had a conversation with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. After the call, which was reported to have gone well, President Trump confirmed that there would be no potential tariff war between the two countries, which could be seen as a positive for trade relations.

Export Sales Data:
For the week ending November 21, U.S. corn export sales totaled 1.06 million metric tons (MMT), which was on the lower end of analysts' estimates ranging between 0.8 and 2 MMT for the 2024/25 marketing year. This marked a 9-week low for corn bookings. Key highlights from the sales data include:

Mexico was the largest buyer, purchasing 405,200 metric tons of corn.
South Korea bought 134,100 metric tons.
Additionally, 67,200 metric tons of corn were sold to Mexico for the 2025/26 marketing year.
Brazil’s Corn Crop and Ethanol Production:
Brazil's agricultural outlook for the 2024/25 season indicates a strong corn crop, with Agroconsult estimating production at 132.7 million metric tons (MMT). The majority of this (about 107.3 MMT) is expected to come from Brazil's second crop (the safrinha), which has become the country’s dominant corn harvest.

In terms of ethanol production, CONAB (Brazil's National Supply Company) forecasts the country will produce 36.08 billion liters of ethanol in the 2024/25 crop year. This is an increase of 0.67 billion liters from the previous forecast. The rise in production is largely attributed to sugarcane, which is projected to produce 28.85 billion liters, up by 0.38 billion liters from the prior estimate. Corn will also contribute to Brazil's ethanol production, though sugarcane remains the dominant feedstock.

These developments highlight a stable international corn market despite potential tariff concerns and the continued growth of Brazil's corn and ethanol sectors, which could impact global supply dynamics in the coming year.