International Oilseed Markets Update

30-Nov-2024 08:05 AM

International Oilseed Markets Update
The USDA reported a private export sale this morning of 840,000 metric tons (MT) of soybeans for the 2024/25 marketing year (MY) to unknown destinations. Additionally, 151,700 MT were sold during the reporting period to unknown destinations.

Weekly Export Sales Data:
For the week ending November 21, U.S. soybean export sales reached a new MY high of 2.49 million metric tons (MMT), hitting the high end of estimates, which ranged from 1.5 to 2.5 MMT. The breakdown of these sales is as follows:

China was the largest buyer, purchasing 1.087 MMT of soybeans.
Mexico bought 229,000 MT.
Germany purchased 202,000 MT.
Additionally, 18,000 MT of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.
In terms of soy meal, sales totaled 487,325 MT, a MY high and an increase of 77.3% from the prior week. Soybean oil sales were also significant, reaching 124,792 MT, the highest level since December 2010.

USDA’s Monthly Crush Report:
The USDA's monthly crush report is expected to be released on Monday, with traders forecasting a soybean crush of 210.9 million bushels (mbu) for October. Soybean oil stocks are anticipated to be 1.52 billion pounds.

Weather and Crop Estimates for Brazil:
Looking ahead, Brazil's central and western regions are expected to experience below-normal rainfall in the next 7 days, while southern Brazil may see above-normal rainfall.

Agroconsult has estimated that Brazil’s soybean production for the 2024/25 season will reach 172.2 million metric tons (MMT), which would represent an increase of 10.2% compared to the previous year.

Market Implications:
This update is critical for the global oilseed markets, particularly for U.S. soybeans and Brazilian production. The strong export sales numbers suggest robust international demand, with China continuing to be a key buyer. The upcoming USDA crush report will provide further insight into U.S. soybean processing trends. Meanwhile, the weather patterns in Brazil could affect production levels, and the forecasted increase in Brazil’s soybean output for the coming season suggests that Brazil will continue to play a significant role in meeting global supply needs. These factors will likely influence global supply chains and pricing trends for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil.