La Nina is getting delayed due to slow cooling of sea level

21-Aug-2024 03:44 PM

Melbourne. The Australia Meteorological Bureau has said that the neutral state of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to remain till the end of spring in the Southern Hemisphere, which has greatly increased the possibility of the arrival of the La Nina weather cycle.

According to the Bureau, although the sea surface temperature (SST) in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean started cooling gradually from December 2023 and by April 2024, its El Nino effect was largely eliminated.

But the cooling of SST has slowed down in early August, which is delaying the arrival of the La Nina weather cycle. But the conditions remain favorable for this.

It is worth noting that the central equatorial Pacific Ocean is the source of origin of both El Nino and La Nina weather cycles.

If the sea surface temperature increases there, then El Nino is formed and if the temperature decreases, then La Nina is formed.

The interesting fact is that different information is being received about La Nina from weather models of different countries.

The American Weather Prediction Center says that the possibility of the arrival of La Nina weather cycle is increasing continuously.

Meanwhile, the Australian Meteorological Agency has said that 3 out of 7 climate models are indicating that the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific region can cross the base limit of (-) 0.8 degree Celsius required for the origin of La Nina in October 2024 because it has so far reached only one-fourth level,

but the remaining models show that ENSO will remain neutral from September to December 2024. This means that the sea surface temperature can remain between (-) 0.8 to (+) 0.8 degree Celsius.