Maize exports from Ukraine are expected to drop sharply in the 2024-25 marketing season due to a significant decline in production caused by severe drought. The exports are projected to fall to 21 million tonnes, a 29% decrease compared to the 2023-24 season and 23% lower than in 2022-23.

This is largely attributed to the extreme heat and dryness between June and September, which negatively impacted the maize crop.

In the 2023-24 season, Ukraine's maize production reached 32.5 million tonnes. However, it is forecast to decrease by approximately 23%, down to 25 million tonnes in 2024-25, marking the lowest level since 2017. The average yield has dropped by 18%, falling to 6.4 tonnes per hectare.

Despite a marginal 1% decrease in the sowing area, the impact of the drought is significant. By the end of November 2024, 24.2 million tonnes of maize had been produced from 3.8 million hectares.

Additionally, Ukraine's maize stock is expected to decline drastically from 2.8 million tonnes in 2023-24 to just 0.2 million tonnes in 2024-25.

The ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports further complicate the situation, hindering trade and exacerbating the challenges faced by the agricultural sector.