Monsoon Season Rainfall Likely to Fall Below Normal Average

14-Apr-2026 10:33 AM

Thiruvananthapuram: This year, during the Southwest Monsoon season (June–September 2026), total rainfall at the national level is likely to fall below the normal average. This could impact the sowing and progress of Kharif crops. While several other weather models had previously indicated signs of flooding, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has now confirmed this revised outlook.

According to the Director General of the IMD, the country is expected to receive 80 cm of rainfall during the 2026 monsoon season, which represents a specific fraction of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall of 87 cm.

As per the Director General, the entire country is likely to receive 92 percent of the LPA rainfall this time around, subject to a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent. A primary reason cited for the below-normal rainfall is the potential onset of the El Niño weather cycle, a phenomenon generally considered unfavorable for the monsoon.

According to the Meteorological Department, various climate models indicate that the onset of El Niño may occur around June, with its intensity potentially increasing during July and August. It is noteworthy that these two months typically witness the highest rainfall and the most extensive sowing of Kharif crops.

These crops include paddy (rice), pigeon pea (Arhar/Tur), black gram (Urad), green gram (Moong), sorghum (Jowar), pearl millet (Bajra), maize, finger millet (Ragi), soybean, groundnut, castor, sesame, and jute, among others.