★ The 2026 kharif pigeon pea (tur) season has begun on a weak note. As of last Friday, pigeon pea sowing had reached only 350,000 hectares, compared with 845,000 hectares during the same period last year. This is also well below the normal sowing area of 4.432 million hectares. The southwest monsoon is running nearly 20 days behind schedule, and the growing risk of El Niño has slowed sowing progress across several key producing regions.

★ The Government has increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for pigeon pea to ₹8,450 per quintal for the 2026-27 season, an increase of ₹450 over the previous year.

★ Despite the higher MSP, market prices remain well below the support level. Current mandi prices are Ahmednagar ₹7,600/quintal, Latur ₹7,700/quintal, Amravati ₹7,600/quintal & Solapur (bilty): ₹7,800/quintal

Imported Mozambique pigeon pea is currently trading around ₹6,050, while Lemon is quoted near ₹7,350 per quintal, indicating that imported supplies continue to exert significant pressure on the domestic market.

★ Meanwhile, in the Gujarat Kharif-2023 Tur procurement tender, 231.3 MT out of 240 MT offered was awarded at an H-1 bid of ₹6,075 per quintal, substantially below the MSP of ₹7,000 applicable for that crop year. 

★ India's pulse production has remained below expectations over the past three years. However, domestic prices continue to face pressure due to abundant imported supplies. At the same time, pulse acreage and production are expanding steadily in major exporting countries, while Indian farmers are gradually reducing their interest in pulse cultivation because of poor price realization.

★ Low prices have severely impacted the financial health of traders, processors, and other stakeholders. Many market participants have either reduced or exited their pulse business. Farmers are also discouraged, as market prices were below MSP both during the previous harvest and again at the current sowing season, reducing the incentive to expand acreage.

★ Fresh African pigeon pea supplies are expected to begin arriving in international markets from August, which may keep import availability comfortable in the near term. However, the market's primary focus is now on the progress of the Indian monsoon.

★ If El Niño strengthens and rainfall during July and August remains below normal, both sowing and production of pigeon pea could be adversely affected. India is still not self-sufficient in pulses, and any significant decline in domestic production could quickly reverse the current bearish sentiment and lead to a sharp recovery in prices.

★ Private trade currently holds adequate stocks of most pulses, meaning there is no immediate supply shortage. However, given the uncertainty surrounding monsoon performance, aggressive government liquidation of pulse stocks may not be advisable. A limited-sale or "wait-and-watch" approach would be more prudent, ensuring sufficient supplies remain available for consumers if domestic production suffers due to adverse weather.

★ The pigeon pea market is currently under pressure due to abundant imports, prices trading below MSP, and declining farmer interest. However, this weak phase may not last.

★ If El Niño results in below-normal rainfall and sowing remains significantly below normal, the current bearish cycle could come to an end. Lower domestic production would tighten supplies, potentially leading to a meaningful recovery in pigeon pea prices and improving sentiment across the broader pulses market.