News Capsule: Weak Monsoon May Hit Tur Output, Import Dependence Likely to Rise
14-Apr-2026 11:24 AM
News Capsule: Weak Monsoon May Hit Tur Output, Import Dependence Likely to Rise
★ The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a weaker-than-normal southwest monsoon for 2026, with rainfall expected at only 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) during June–September. There is also a 66% probability that rainfall will remain in the “deficient to below normal” category. If this forecast proves accurate, it would make 2026 the weakest monsoon year since 2015.
★ The biggest impact of a weak monsoon is likely to be on rainfed crops, especially tur (pigeon pea), which is highly dependent on weather conditions. Tur is a long-duration crop and requires moderate rainfall; both deficient and excessive rain can damage yields. Most major tur-producing states in India are rainfed regions, making monsoon rainfall critical for the crop’s success.
★ Last season, tur production declined due to reduced acreage, increasing India’s dependence on imports. If rainfall remains weak again this year, domestic production may suffer further, reducing market availability and pushing up the need for imports.
★ Fresh supplies from African countries are expected to begin arriving from August, while Myanmar may expand acreage in the next season. However, if India’s domestic crop declines sharply, imports alone may not be enough to meet total consumption demand.
★ Under weak monsoon conditions, controlling tur prices could become a major challenge for the government, as the market is driven primarily by supply-demand fundamentals. Lower domestic output and limited import availability may lead to a sharp rise in pulse prices.