★ The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a “below normal” southwest monsoon for 2026, with rainfall expected at only 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) during June–September. There is also a 66% probability that rainfall will remain in the “deficient to below normal” category. If this forecast materialises, it would mark the weakest monsoon since 2015, when rainfall stood at 86% of the benchmark.

★ The biggest impact of weak monsoon conditions is likely to be seen on kharif crops, especially paddy, as it is the most water-intensive crop. A large portion of India’s net sown area depends on rainfall, and crops such as paddy, coarse cereals, pulses, oilseeds, and cotton rely heavily on monsoon rains. Any delay in rainfall arrival or deficiency during June and July could disrupt kharif sowing, which contributes nearly 60% of the country’s total crop production.

★ Despite the potential production risk, there is currently adequate rice stock available in government reserves as well as with private traders, reducing the immediate threat of supply shortages. However, if an entire season is affected by poor rainfall, market dynamics could shift significantly.

★ In recent weeks, rice prices have already shown improvement due to global geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices. According to IGrain India, rice prices may strengthen further if monsoon rains remain weak. This could benefit paddy farmers and the rice industry, both of which have been under pressure from lower prices in recent seasons. Reduced production under weak monsoon conditions may lead to firmer market prices, improving farmer profitability.