Possibility of Rise in Kalonji Prices as Market Supply Dwindles

22-May-2025 06:43 PM

Possibility of Rise in Kalonji Prices as Market Supply Dwindles

New Delhi. A gradual upward trend in Kalonji (black cumin) prices has begun, with mandi rates rising by Rs.3–4 per kg today. Sources report that as most of the season's total production has already arrived in the mandis, the volume of fresh arrivals is now steadily declining. Simultaneously, demand from pickle manufacturers is increasing, reinforcing the likelihood of continued price firmness in the near term.

Production in the current season across major producing states—Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh—is estimated at 2.25 to 2.50 lakh bags. Although this is comparable to last year’s output, the overall availability is lower due to reduced carryover stock. In contrast, the previous year’s production was significantly higher at around 3.50 to 4 lakh bags.

Limited Supply and Rising Demand

Industry sources estimate that the total annual requirement for Kalonji, including domestic consumption and exports, stands at 3.50 to 4 lakh bags. However, this year’s total availability is projected to be below 3 lakh bags, comprising 2.25–2.50 lakh bags of fresh production and about 25,000–30,000 bags of leftover stock. This shortfall is expected to keep prices firm, with little to no chance of a downward correction.

Mandis See Declining Arrivals

The reduced inflow of Kalonji into mandis is evident. In Gujarat’s Gondal Mandi, daily arrivals have fallen to around 800 bags, with prices now ranging from Rs.170 to Rs. 205 per kg. In early April, daily arrivals were at 2,500 bags and prices were in the range of Rs.160 to Rs.185 per kg. Similarly, Neemuch Mandi has seen arrivals fall to 800–1,000 bags, with prices climbing to Rs.180–Rs.210 per kg based on quality, up from Rs.168–Rs.192 per kg earlier in April.

Market Outlook

Market experts believe there is little likelihood of a price dip in the near term. With falling arrivals and increasing domestic buying, prices may rise by Rs.30–Rs.40 per kg soon. Some traders speculate that due to the supply shortage relative to demand, Kalonji prices may even approach the historic high of ₹290–₹300 per kg recorded in 2014.