Rice Production Expected to Remain Roughly on Par with Last Year

22-May-2026 05:12 PM

Hyderabad: Projecting global rice production to reach 545 million tonnes during the 2026-27 season, the International Grains Council (IGC) has stated that this figure is broadly in line with the output of the previous season (2025-26), though it represents a downward revision of 300,000 tonnes compared to last month's estimate. While rice production in India is expected to rise, some other countries may witness a decline in their output.

An interesting point to note is that, given the potential for reduced monsoon rainfall due to the impact of El Niño, apprehensions have been raised regarding the possibility of rice production in India being adversely affected this year; however, the IGC does not share this view. Instead, the Council forecasts an increase in rice production.

For the 2026-27 season, the IGC has lowered its estimate for global rice consumption by 1 million tonnes, setting the revised figure at 543 million tonnes. Consequently, global rice carryover stocks are projected to rise by 2 million tonnes—from 195 million tonnes—to reach a total of 197 million tonnes.

While substantial stocks are expected to be held in China and India, inventories in certain exporting nations may decline. India stands as the world's leading supplier of rice, contributing approximately 40–42 percent to the global export market.

Apart from India, rice is also exported by several other nations, including Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar, Pakistan, Cambodia, and the United States.

Global rice trade is expected to expand from 61 million tonnes to reach a record high of 62 million tonnes. For the 2025-26 season, global rice production has been estimated at 545 million tonnes.